Australian Federal Election Odds

Australia goes to the polls in May for Federal Elections and the odds suggest that the result is too close to call, with a minority government and a hung parliament realistic possibilities.

The current government, led by PM Anthony Albanese, is formed by the Australian Labor Party after they claimed the narrowest of victories back in 2022, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives - with 76 needed to gain an overall majority.

All 150 seats in the lower house are up for re-election in May, with the Coalition hoping to improve significantly on the 58-seat tally they secured three years ago.

Meanwhile, 40 of the 76 seats in the upper house, The Senate, are also on the line.

The Coalition currently forms the largest party in The Senate with 32 seats, while Labor hold 26 and the Greens have 12.

Australian Federal Election outright odds

Coalition - 1.70
Australian Labor Party - 2.15

Hung Parliament - 1.36
Overall Majority - 3.00

The current outright odds suggest that the Coalition are on course to claim victory, with Peter Dutton their leader after Scott Morrison stepped aside following the 2022 election defeat.

However, their chances of securing an overall majority are not overly rosy, with a hung parliament seen as the most likely outcome at 1.36.

A major factor in the final outcome is set to be the amount of support offered to independents and other parties, with the primary vote share of the two main parties having slumped to an all-time low of 68.5 per cent three years ago.

That is in contrast to the 98 per cent of the vote that the two main parties took back in 1951, with the fragmentation of Australian politics meaning that an overall majority is becoming more and more difficult to achieve.

Most of the pre-election polls show a small increase in support for the Coalition, with a slightly bigger fall in support being seen for the ruling Australian Labor Party.

That seems almost certain to translate into a loss of the overall Labor majority in the House of Representatives, with them standing just two seats the right side of the line from three years ago.

Government after next election

Australian Labor Party Minority - 2.80
Coalition Minority - 2.80
Coalition Majority - 4.00
Australian Labor Party Majority - 8.00

With a majority government for either of the two main parties looking unlikely after the elections in May, most of the focus will switch to what deals they can make with other parties and independent candidates to ensure that they can govern successfully.

A minority government for either the ruling Australian Labor Party or the Coalition is currently priced at 2.80, while, if a majority government is to be formed, then the Coalition lead the way at 4.00.

If the odds and pollsters are proved right, then voters giving the nod to candidates outside the main two parties will be a crucial section of the electorate.

Recent polls have primary vote support for the Labor Party at around 29 per cent, with the Coalition standing at somewhere between 35 and 39 per cent.

That leaves a large fraction of the electorate expected to look elsewhere for their preferred option, with the Greens at around 12-14 per cent and a range of other parties and candidates expected to hoover up as much as a quarter of the total primary vote.

With the main two parties accounting for 135 of the 151 House of Representatives seats in 2022, that left four seats won by the Greens and another 12 going to other parties and independents.

Those tallies seem certain to rise this time around, which will leave Albanese and Dutton to try and negotiate support to ensure that they can lead the next government.

Any odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and are subject to fluctuation.