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Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys: Australian Open final preview

Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka faces Madison Keys in the women's singles final at the Australian Open, with the Belarusian the hot fancy to complete a hat-trick of Melbourne successes.

Sabalenka has dropped just one set on her way to a third consecutive Melbourne Park final, as she targets a third successive hardcourt Grand Slam title, having also won the 2024 US Open.

Keys, meanwhile, has reached a second Grand Slam final with a superb run of results which have seen her oust Danielle Collins, Elena Rybakina, Elina Svitolina and Iga Swiatek in her last four matches.

Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys

Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys odds

 

Aryna Sabalenka

Madison Keys

Match winner

1.28

3.75

Set betting 2-0

1.80

7.00

Set betting 2-1

3.50

7.00

Signs point to Sabalenka success

Sabalenka has been the outstanding hardcourt player in the women’s game over the last calendar year, winning a second Australian Open title 12 months ago and adding to the US Open crown later on in 2024.

She has backed those efforts up by reaching the Melbourne final for a third straight year, with her only dropped set coming in a thrilling quarter-final clash with Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

With that run in mind, it is not surprising to see the top seed at 1.80 to win in two straight sets, while she is 1.36 to secure the opening set against 2017 US Open runner-up Keys.

In contrast to her dominant groundstrokes, Sabalenka looks like being outgunned on serve by Keys, who has recorded 28 aces in the tournament to date - far in advance of the defending champion's 12.

Sabalenka is 2.75 to overturn the serve statistics and record the most aces in the final, with Keys down at 1.66 in the same market.

The Belarusian powerhouse also has the benefit of knowing that she has won four of her previous five meetings with Keys, including both matches at Grand Slams.

A cautionary tale for Sabalenka, however, comes from her 2023 US Open semi-final victory over Keys, when she had to recover from being bageled in the first set to edge a 0-6 7-6 7-6 win.

Keys not to be underestimated

While Sabalenka is the strong favourite to take the title in Melbourne, Keys should not be discounted, having excelled in reaching the second Grand Slam final of her career.

Placed in a tough section of the draw, the 19th seed battled past tenth seed Collins and sixth seed Rybakina to reach the quarter-finals, where she outlasted 28th seed Svitolina in a three-set thriller.

Those efforts were surpassed in the semis as she upset second seed Swiatek 5-7 6-1 7-6 to set up a title showdown with Sabalenka.

A huge question is whether her efforts to get to the final will prove to be a major factor against the two-time defending champion, with Keys out at 3.75 to claim a first-ever Grand Slam title.

She is 7.00 to prevail in three sets, while Keys can be backed at 11.00 to come from behind to secure victory, having done exactly that against both Svitolina and Swiatek.

Having been thrashed 6-3 6-0 by fellow American Sloane Stephens in her previous Grand Slam final, at the 2017 US Open, Keys will no doubt be highly motivated to do much better against Sabalenka.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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